Roll Call has commissioned SurveyUSA to conduct polls in Ohio’s top four congressional races (I wish they would’ve polled OH-07 also, but I’ll take what I can get), and they’ve just released the results. Let’s take a look (9/19-21, likely voters):
Steve Driehaus (D): 44
Steve Chabot (R-inc): 46
Other: 6
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Victoria Wulsin (D): 40
Jean Schmidt (R-inc) 48
Other: 10
(MoE: ±3.9%)
OH-15 (8/2-4 in parens):
Mary Jo Kilroy (D): 47 (47)
Steve Stivers (R): 42 (44)
Don Eckhart (I): 5 (7)
Mark Noble (L): 3
(MoE: ±4%)
John Boccieri (D): 49
Kirk Schuring (R): 41
(MoE: ±4%)
Decent looking numbers for Mary Jo Kilroy and especially John Boccieri. It looks like the DCCC’s unanswered $850,000 spent in these two districts is making an impact.
Also looking good is Steve Driehaus, who could be poised to capitalize on Barack Obama’s organization in this district. The Cincinnati-based 1st CD is 28% African-American, and Driehaus’ hopes will rest in part on a strong turnout by these voters: if African-Americans make up only 26% of the vote on election day, Chabot’s lead grows to 47-44, but if the black turnout pushes to 30%, the race is tied at 45-45.
Roll Call also polled the Presidential race in three of the four districts (why they left off the extremely swingin’ OH-15, I have no idea):
- OH-01: Obama 52%, McCain 43% (Kerry 49%, Bush 51%)
- OH-02: Obama 39%, McCain 58% (Kerry 36%, Bush 64%)
- OH-16: Obama 46%, McCain 48% (Kerry 46%, Bush 54%)
Interesting that we’re seeing a sizable Obama improvement in these three CD-based polls, but most of the recent statewide polling shows McCain with a small edge. Vic Wulsin’s gonna have a tough time leaping over that red wall, but we can take heart in that Mean Jean is still clearly damaged goods, as she lags behind McCain by a full 10%. A conservative-leaning independent, businessman David Kirkorian, is also in the race and was recently endorsed by the Cincinnati Fraternal Order of Police. He could be a factor in November.
as OH-15 or OH-16. I figure they’ve got a strategy plotted out and it will soon get that attention. I just don’t like being left out of the loop. 😀
I’d like to see OH-01 and OH-02 get the kind of investment that OH-15 and OH-16 have been getting, with that I think those races would have similar results to the races where the D Trip has been making investments.
Being from southeast Indiana I get cincy tv…and I absolutely can’t stand Mean Jean! If the DCCC are seeing these polls they should gather they need to get on the air in OH-02, and eventually get on the air on OH-01! But overall these are good numbers picking up all four of these seats would be amazing!
That OH-16 was our best shot. Though all four polls look good for us.
the majority of the Ohio delegation. That’s important for only one reason: the possibility of an Electoral College tie.
Yes, Maj. Boccieri has been receiving a lot of support from the DCCC. But the reason why he’s ahead is because he’s the right candidate for the District and he has been working HARD from day one, with heavy support from Ted Strickland and his allies.
Well, that and the fact that Schuring is a complete doofus…
State Senator Boccieri has paid his dues in the state legislature. He’s ready for the job. He’s experienced, smart and tough minded but not a loose cannon.
Now that polling shows Maj. Boccieri pulling ahead, what little support the GOPers have been giving Schuring will completely dry up as the NRCC gets increasingly desperate to defend others from their Ohio Delegation of the Doomed.
But in contrast, on our side, this means the D-Trip will be able to throw even more resources behind Steve Dreihaus, Vic Wulsin, Judge O’Neill and Sharen Neuhardt.
(Cue broken record) we are going to flip three seats in Ohio and give the GOP so much grief in other races that the GOP will be forced to make tough choices as to where to throw their limited resources.
Bonus tip: George Voinovich is in BIG trouble. In 2010 there are going to be MULTIPLE Democrats capable of taking him out. Just for instance, Rich Cordray is going to cruise to victory as Attorney General. So George, which K Street lobbying firms have you sent your resumes to?